{"id":13633,"date":"2023-09-20T02:58:41","date_gmt":"2023-09-19T16:58:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/?p=13633"},"modified":"2023-09-20T12:31:57","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T02:31:57","slug":"what-15-years-of-research-tells-us-about-nudge-theorys-promises-and-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/20\/what-15-years-of-research-tells-us-about-nudge-theorys-promises-and-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"What 15 years of research tells us about ‘nudge’ theory’s promises and politics"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s been 15 years since a particular concept of behavioural science went mainstream. ‘Nudge theory’<\/a>, the notion that our behaviour can be successfully influenced through ‘soft’ interventions, has subsequently appealed to plenty of people seeking to change the way we live.<\/p>\n

The 2008 book which set out the idea \u2013\u00a0Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth and Happiness<\/a><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 sold more than 2 million copies. But its influence went way beyond sales figures.<\/p>\n

The authors \u2013 behavioural economist Richard Thaler and law professor Cass Sunstein \u2013 inspired powerful politicians, including former United States president Barack Obama<\/a> and former United Kingdom prime minister David Cameron<\/a>\u00a0to set up government teams with the specific remit of incorporating nudge theory into public policy.<\/p>\n

These ‘nudge units’ became widespread, with recent research suggesting there are now over 200 of them<\/a> around the world. But while teams of policymakers appear happy to have been taking their ‘nudge-pills’<\/a>, making small changes to our decision-making processes, the success of those carefully designed nudges is by no means universally agreed.<\/p>\n

Back in 2008 though, whether or not nudges actually worked was rarely discussed. The book was packed with peer-reviewed studies, and set out an idea that was broad enough for many readers to relate to. It felt intuitive.<\/p>\n

Instead, criticism of nudging at the time typically focused on concerns that government nudges\u00a0undermined individual freedom<\/a>. The worry was that if nudges could lead to major changes in personal decision-making and be used to influence citizen behaviour, then this created the risk of\u00a0illegitimate state overreach<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 maybe even\u00a0totalitarianism<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These days, while some questions remain about individual freedom, they are not as prominent. One reason appears to be a general acceptance that some government influence on citizens and the decisions they make\u00a0is surely inevitable<\/a>. But there is also the fact that\u00a0a large amount of evidence<\/a>\u00a0questions whether nudges actually work at all.<\/p>\n

After 15 years, plenty of nudge studies can now be assessed to get a better sense of whether this seemingly revolutionary idea really delivers. Behavioural economists undertake this assessment using an approach called ‘meta-analysis’, which combines multiple studies to get the most reliable data. Last year, one major meta-analysis<\/a>\u00a0reported finding no evidence of nudges working.<\/p>\n

This was a big deal<\/a>. And although the study had its own critics who say it does not properly account for context<\/a>, the analysis also supported\u00a0previous evidence<\/a> of publication bias, suggesting researchers have been cherry picking the ‘good’ nudge studies to publish for years.<\/p>\n

Nudge theory has also been undermined elsewhere by doubts raised around the\u00a0usefulness of findings<\/a>\u00a0in behavioural science and psychology, as well as high-profile scandals involving\u00a0allegations of data fabrication<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pushing back against nudging<\/h3>\n

Critics of nudge theory have two key arguments. One is the notion that nudges have small (if any) effects on our behaviour, and are therefore\u00a0ineffective policy tools<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Their second point is that nudge-based acts are open to being used by vested interests to\u00a0distract policymakers<\/a>\u00a0and the public from actually effective solutions \u2013 that they put the emphasis on slight changes from individuals instead of more meaningful and effective systemic change.<\/p>\n

For instance, nudges that encourage households to\u00a0reduce their energy consumption<\/a>\u00a0may be considered a good idea. But what if this nudge also\u00a0reduces the political will<\/a>\u00a0to pursue more effective (and expensive) policies, such as retrofitting homes or dramatically investing in sources of sustainable energy?<\/p>\n

Even supporters of nudge theory have conceded that\u00a0nudges may have overpromised<\/a>\u00a0in the past. A recent\u00a0behavioural science ‘manifesto’<\/a> argues that behavioural economists should \u201cbe humble\u201d about limits of nudge theory. And, in a 2021 updated edition of their\u00a0famous book<\/a>, Thaler and Sunstein \u2013 who never anticipated the\u00a0phenomenal reach they achieved<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 argue that nudges are always part of the solution, but\u00a0rarely the solution itself<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the political sphere, though, nudge theory will probably continue to prosper, as a way of gaining political capital from cheap solutions to difficult problems<\/a>. For instance, the nudge of automatically enrolling UK workers into pension schemes (they have the right to opt out) has\u00a0substantially increased<\/a>\u00a0the number of people saving for retirement, an ambition of both Labour and Conservative governments.<\/p>\n

This policy uses a common type of nudge known as a ‘default option’<\/a>, which relies on people\u2019s tendency to\u00a0accept the status quo<\/a>. Before automatic enrolment, employers were still obliged to provide a pension scheme, but employees had to request access to it.<\/p>\n

But even when nudged in this soft, almost passive way, people probably\u00a0aren\u2019t saving enough<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 mainly because they can\u2019t afford to. Fundamental pension reform or a radical change to wealth distribution is politically challenging and expensive, whereas nudging workers into passive enrolment is not.<\/p>\n

Nudges are also less controversial to the electorate than a new ban or mandate. A gentle push towards\u00a0more environmentally friendly behaviour<\/a>\u00a0is likely to provoke less backlash among voters than a government ordering people to change the way they do things.<\/p>\n

In this sense then, nudges remain useful political tools. They are cheap, and they neither ban nor mandate. And if they don\u2019t work, it takes a while for voters to notice.<\/p>\n

So perhaps nudges do not even need to work to continue to have a role in modern society, because politicians will always demand a tool like them for\u00a0their political ends<\/a>. It is an argument that could nudge nudging along for at least another 15 years.<\/p>\n

This article was originally published in <\/strong><\/em>The Conversation<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Photo by Jon Tyson<\/a> on Unsplash.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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