{"id":11337,"date":"2022-03-02T17:54:20","date_gmt":"2022-03-02T06:54:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/?p=11337"},"modified":"2022-07-22T00:33:25","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T14:33:25","slug":"red-alert-on-climate-change-vulnerability-and-adaptation-limitations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/2022\/03\/02\/red-alert-on-climate-change-vulnerability-and-adaptation-limitations\/","title":{"rendered":"Red alert on climate change vulnerability and adaptation limitations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Projected global warming under current global emissions reduction policies will leave many of our region\u2019s human and natural systems at very high risk, and will put some beyond adaptation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, <em>Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability<\/em>, released on 28 February, follows <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">last year\u2019s report that focused on the physical science of climate change<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and further emphasises the need for immediate action on global emissions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It comprises 18 chapters representing the efforts of more than 200 scientists in reviewing the latest information about how climate change is affecting natural and human systems, future risks, approaches to adaptation, and links to climate-resilient development.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chapter 11 of the report, of which I was a lead author, explains that exposure to climate trends and extreme events of many natural systems and some human systems, combined with their existing vulnerabilities, have already resulted in major impacts in Australia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Extreme events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods, storms and bushfires have caused deaths and injuries, and affected many households, communities and businesses at considerable economic cost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s some of our iconic ecosystems that are at greatest risk from current and future climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The greatest risk is for the loss and degradation of coral reefs and associated biodiversity and ecosystem service values in Australia due to ocean warming and marine heatwaves.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The three marine heatwaves that occurred between 2016 and 2020 have caused significant bleaching and subsequent loss of corals and associated marine life, and an increased frequency of such events under climate change will exceed the reef\u2019s regenerative capacity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Other key regional risks identified include:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the loss of alpine biodiversity in Australia due to less snow<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the transition or collapse of alpine ash, snow gum woodland, pencil pine and northern jarrah forests in southern Australia due to hotter and drier conditions with more fires<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the further loss of underwater kelp forests in southern Australia that is driven by ocean warming and marine heatwaves<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the loss of natural and human systems in low-lying coastal areas due to sea-level rise<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the disruption in agricultural production and increased stress in rural communities in southern and eastern Australia due to hotter and drier conditions<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">an increase in heat-related mortality and morbidity for people and wildlife due to heatwaves.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We also identified two emerging kinds of climate risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One is the cascading and compounding impacts on cities, settlements, infrastructure, supply chains and services, due to events such as bushfires and heatwaves.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"3i0ygCrl9iYBsO2EqxIhvNujX8wL20YHUnp63wTUP1Ecazq4vonPyV7lsGWKHMGRFx\"><iframe title=\"The Bushfires that Changed Australia - A Different Lens.\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/QADkvYlZsps?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A good example is the Black Summer fires of 2019-2020 that took many lives directly, but also produced extreme air pollution that affected agricultural production, human health and tourism.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"R8x7KbetYzZC1fSGHIUSFTJWOLGPEA0enw7UgW1zDaiwv2KP0sx9Dgprmhyc5oqBRQNj9u3iqujbIBtMvOEAyNa\"><iframe title=\"Sustainable Futures - A Different Lens\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rpLhpIDZ9XE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The other is the inability of institutions and governance systems to manage climate risks because the scale and scope of projected climate impacts may overwhelm the capacity of institutions, organisations and systems to provide necessary policies, services, resources and coordination to address the socio-economic impacts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The issues of adaptation, especially to heat in Australian cities, is of particular interest, but it\u2019s not all bad news. Compared to the last IPCC assessment, the adaptation process has improved across governments, non-government organisations, businesses and communities in Australia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In Australian cities, local governments are making impressive efforts to adapt to climate change and its impacts. Urban forests and irrigated vegetation are very good at reducing heat impacts, especially during heatwaves, and many local government areas have established targets for tree cover and integrated water management that can support healthy transpiring vegetation and reduce temperature.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the reality is that even with further improvements in the adaptation process, our ability to adapt our way out of trouble will be severely compromised without rapid decarbonisation to limit warming.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The key point for governments to note is that there are clear limits to adaptation, and that we\u2019re rapidly approaching those limits, so action on emissions is critical and must urgently be enacted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b><i>This article was originally published on <\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/lens.monash.edu\/2022\/02\/28\/1384499\/ipcc-report-2022-red-alert-on-climate-change-vulnerability-and-adaptation-limitations\"><b>Monash Lens<\/b><\/a><b><i>. It is republished under Creative Commons.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Photo by <a href=\"https:\/\/unsplash.com\/photos\/BqYttheZzUo\">Annie Spratt<\/a> on Unsplash.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Projected global warming under current global emissions reduction policies will leave many of our region\u2019s human and natural systems at<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":505,"featured_media":11338,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[355],"coauthors":[244],"class_list":["post-11337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science-health","tag-climate-change"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/505"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11337"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11337\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11341,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11337\/revisions\/11341"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11337"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rationalemagazine.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=11337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}